It is once again the weekend and we all know what that means; it is time for another week of NFL picks brought to you by Pickin’ Winners. I am Pickin’ T-Ho and you may know me from our football betting show Pickin’ Six along side The Locksmith. Now that we have introductions out of the way, let’s get to what everyone came for, sports betting spreads.
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This is my first opportunity to post a blog here on Men Of Order, but last week on our show I went 4-0 in my college football picks and 3-1 in my NFL picks. So I am hoping to replicate that same success this weekend.
Bengals -10.5 vs Jets O/U 43
Last year and Joe Burrow’s rookie season he spent a lot of time on the ground and because of that the Bengals could not get anything going. This season now that he’s back and recovered from injury, this team looks ready to compete. In his sophomore campaign he is playing lights out. Speaking of lights out, 5th overall pick Ja’Marr Chase is putting up unbelievable numbers. He has the highest receiving yard total through 7 games in the history of the NFL. As far as this game is concerned, I do not think that 10.5 points is a herculean task to cover when playing the Jets. The Bengals are 4-3 ATS (against the spread) while the Jets are a whopping 1-4, not to mention the Bengals just beat the breaks off the Ravens in a 41-17 victory. The Bengals are also 3-1 ATS as the away team so far this season. At the end of the day the Jets are going to Jet and that is why I am taking the Bengals -10.5.
Colts -2.5 vs Titans O/U 50.5
This one is a battle of the top two teams in the AFC South. The Colts are coming into this one after a solid 30-17 win over the 49ers. The mighty mighty Titans are rolling in hot off a statement win over the Chiefs. The Colts are favored in this matchup and I am not exactly sure why. They are definitely showing improvement from game to game but I just do not think that even a defense as good as theirs can handle the force that is Derrick Henry right now. Julio should also be back in the Titans line up and I think that gives them even more juice on the offensive side of the ball. Both teams are currently 5-2 ATS on the season. One trend that stands out to me the most is that the Titans are 3-0 ATS as the underdog this season. They also have won 3 out of the last 5 matchups with the Colts. In gambling sometimes the best thing to do is ride the hot hand until they show otherwise and that is why I am rolling with the Titans +2.5.
Bucs -4.5 vs Saints O/U 49.5
It is sad to see the Saints without Drew Brees at the helm of the offense. Jameis Winston is trying to forge an identity for this team. I just do not know if they are at that point yet. They looked great against the Packers and have been up and down since. They do boast wins over the Pats and the Seahawks so that’s something to hang their hat on. However, I think that if a team wants to beat the likes of Tom Brady they need a lot more than what the Saints have to offer. The Bucs are currently 3-4 against the spread while New Orleans is 2-3. In this scenario I just think that Tampa Bay is far and away the better team and I think that they are going to ruin Winston’s first game starting against his former team. Give me Bucs -4.5.
Vikings -3 vs Cowboys O/U 52.5
The story of this game is one thing, line movement. What that means is as more people bet on a game, the spread of the game changes. If the majority is betting heavily on the favorite to cover then the number goes higher in the team's favor. If the public is leaning hard towards the underdog covering the spread, then that number shrinks. When this line on this game first came out, the Cowboys were favored to win by 2 points. For some reason, people are riding heavily on the Vikings to the point where now Minnesota is favored by 3 points. One of our recurring guests on our show gave us a statistic that when a line moves from favoring one team to the other, the team that was originally favored wins the game 60% of the time. Now that seems like a pretty glaring statistic to me. The Cowboys are currently sitting at a perfect 6-0 ATS on the season. They have covered the spread no matter the scenario. In this week’s episode of Pickin’ Six we picked Dallas when they were favored by -2.5. So you better believe that we love them when they are underdogs. Lock in Dallas +3.
Buffalo Bills Spread ( -14 + 6 = -8)
LA Rams Spread (-16 + 6 = -10)
Cincinnati Bengals Spread (-10.5 + 6 = -4.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Spread (-4.5 + 6 = +1.5)
Dallas Cowboys Spread ( +3 + 6 = +9)