Conor from PickinWinners.Org here and I’ve got you covered with picks for NFL slate for Week 5. Make sure you read all the way through for my juicy teaser. Nothing in the sports betting world is a guarantee, so remember, bet responsibly.
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Week 5 has some great matchups and even better opportunities to make some bread. Here are my Winners.
Eagles at Panthers -3 (over/under: 45)
This is my lock of the week, and here’s why.
The Panthers are 3-1 against the spread (ATS) and might be without Christian McCaffrey on Sunday. His potential absence is nothing to worry about as Sam Darnold has been leading the Carolina offense to success that we haven’t seen with other Darnold-led offenses. It seems the jersey swap has paid dividends for the USC product.
My pick here is to fade the Eagles, as I have been all season. They are flat out terrible. Jalen Hurts has not continued his brief success from last season and the Eagles have looked like the worst team in the NFC East so far this season. They are going up against a Panthers defense that ranks third in yards per game and allows 16.5 ppg. This defense will get stronger with the acquisition of Stephon Gilmore, who will not be in the the lineup for this game. The Robby Anderson-DJ Moore tandem is not as potent as last season, but still proves to be a bigger threat than the Philadelphia receiving corps. Darnold has added a new dimension to the Carolina offense, with his showing as a dual-threat quarterback that leads the league in rushing touchdowns. The Panthers are looking to bounce back from their Week 4 loss and prove that their early season success was not a fluke. My pick is Panthers -3.
Giants at Cowboys -7 (over/under: 52)
Daniel Jones led the NY Football Giants to their first win of the season in dramatic fashion, tallying 402 passing yards and two touchdowns along the way. Dallas is riding a three game winning streak and is 4-0 ATS this season.
Dak Prescott passed the thousand yard passing mark in Week 4 and is tied for third in the league with 10 passing touchdowns. Ezekial Elliot looks close to his rookie year form and is tied for fourth in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Amari Cooper and Ceedee Lamb continue to be lethal weapons for the Dallas offense. These aren’t his only weapons. He connected with Dalton Schultz and Cedrick Wilson for touchdowns in Week 4 and Blake Jarwin is always primed for targets in the redzone. Look for Dak to have a big game on Sunday. The Cowboys have limited their opponents to 81 rushing yards per game this season and will look to limit the impact of Saquon Barkley during this divisional showdown. Taking away the run game will make things different for Jones and the Giants and the Cowboys’ deep offense will put up points on Sunday to cover the 7 point spread.
Browns at Chargers -2 (over/under: 47)
Over the course of this week, the lines have moved away from Cleveland being the favorite at -1.5 to them being the roaddog at +2. When there is line movement like this, history says take the original favorite, the Browns.
Now, I am not just basing my pick off of a statistic. Justin Herbert, while looking like a stud, has not faced an athlete breaking through his O-line with the agility, quickness, and power of Myles Garrett yet this season. I see Garrett and the Browns defense causing havoc in the pocket for the young QB. Another focus of this Cleveland defense will be to limit the success of Austin Ekeler in the backfield. He has been crucial for the Chargers and their offensive attack so far this season. They stifle the opposing rushing attacks, holding their opposition to 66 ypg. The Browns and Baker Mayfield have not looked remotely as good as this past season and I think this could be the game they right the ship. Baker looked like a dumpster-fire against the Vikings last week, pulling out a win, and I can see him doing the same this week in this matchup of 3-1, AFC top-dawgs. The Browns (+2) defense will be the deciding factor in this game, leading to them covering the spread.
Bills at Chiefs -2.5 (over/under: 56.5)
This Sunday Night matchup certainly has the potential to be the game of the week with two of the best, young quarterbacks in the league, in Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, facing off. Kansas City has had a lackluster start to the season, while Buffalo has rattled off three straight wins following their Week 1 loss.
Despite those three wins, Buffalo has not played anyone. They lost to a Pittsburgh team that is now the laughingstock of the league, beat a Washington team by three touchdowns, and held both Hosuton and Miami to goose eggs. Their defense has allowed 11 ppg while facing Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heinicke, and Davis Mills. It is quite obvious they have not faced an offense as talented as the Chiefs’. Oh, the Chiefs also scooped up Josh Gordon. He likely will not be a huge contributor on Sunday, but adding him to a loaded group of pass catchers led by Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce is scary. Clyde Edwards-Helaire rose from the dead to record 114 all-purpose yards and a receiving touchdown last week. Not to mention, Mahomes threw FIVE touchdowns, three of which stuck to the gloves of the Cheetah. Kansas City’s defense is not nearly as good as in previous campaigns, and gives up over 30 ppg so far this season. With one overrated defense, one bad defense, and two offensive juggernauts, this game will be a shootout. I’m toying with the idea of taking both teams to score 30+ points. That is not my official pick on this game, but I will be taking the Over at 56.5 points.
My boy Keith introduced us with Teaser Town last week, so it would only feel right that I continue the tradition.
To recap: A teaser is a bet in which the bettor selects a set number of picks, and a certain amount of points to “buy” from them. Buying points essentially subtracts them from a line. A 6 game 6 point teaser allows for 6 selections (or “legs”), all of which have 6 points bought from them. For example, if one leg was originally “Jacksonville Jaguars -7” on a 6 point teaser, then when I add it to my teaser, it would become “Jacksonville Jaguars -1”. The Jaguars would only have to cover a one point spread, which is much more attainable (especially for the Jaguars). If a team has to cover a 6 point spread originally and is added to a 6 point teaser, then they just have to win outright.
I am also rolling with a 6 leg, 6.5 point teaser for this week:
Carolina Panthers Spread (-3 + 6.5 = +3.5)
Dallas Cowboys Spread (-7 + 6.5 = -0.5)
Cleveland Browns Spread (+2 + 6.5 = +8.5)
Kansas City Chiefs – Buffalo Bills Over (56.5 – 6.5 = 50)
Minnesota Vikings Spread (-7.5 + 6.5 = they can beat the Lions by more than 1 point)
Tompa Bay Bucs Spread (-10 + 6.5 = 3.5)
How’d you like the picks? Let me know on Twitter @PickinConor. Check out pickinwinners.org, Pickin’ Winners on YouTube, and our Instagram and Twitter @_pickinwinners. Please bet responsibly.