Jets (+143 ML) at Patriots (-3.5), O/U 38 Total Points
The Patriots got the best of Zach Wilson & the Jets a few weeks ago, beating them 22-17. It took A LOT of help from Zach Wilson, who threw 3 interceptions on 41 pass attempts. The Jets only gained 51 yards on the ground!
That's not their game.
Zach Wilson is averaging 25 pass attempts per game this season, if we exclude that game vs the Patriots. The Jets are averaging 148.2 rushing yards since Wilson came back from injury, if we exclude that game vs the Patriots. Oh, BTW, the Jets are 5-0 in those games.
Run The Ball!
The recipe for the Jets is clear, and they should stick to it as they look for revenge against their divisional foe.
Zach Wilson UNDER 30.5 Pass Attempts. (-110 at Bet MGM or Draft Kings is best value at time of writing)
Wilson has only gone over 26 pass attempts twice this season, & both were his only games with interceptions. The Patriots have a top 11 passing defense in terms of yardage allowed, and they are a bottom 13 run defense in terms of yardage allowed.
Zach Wilson is statistically one of the worst QB's in the NFL when under pressure. The Patriots are #2 in the league in sacks per game with 3.6. It'd be wise for the Jets to favor the run early & often, & hopefully make the game a bit easier for their young unproven QB.
It's worth taking a look at either Michael Carter or James Robinson for rushing props as well. I'm waiting for Carter's rush attempts line to drop. I'll give an update on that on our live show Sunday morning.
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Jets +3.5
I locked the Jets in at +2.5 early in the week on our NFL Early Lines show. I liked it at +2.5, I LOVE it at +3.5.
They were a couple foolish Zach Wilson int's from winning outright in their last matchup. Obviously, I expect them to take the ball out of his hands this time around, & I think they'll find success doing so.
It's been flawless all season, why switch it up in both Patriots games?
Yes it's in Foxborough, but the Jets are 4-0 on the road this season. Run game travels well.
Jets at Patriots Betting Trends
- Jets 6-3 ATS, Patriots 5-3-1
- Jets 3-6 on the Over, Patriots 4-5
- Jets
- 4-0 ATS vs a team with a winning record
- 4-0 ATS in L4 road games
- Under is 4-0 in L4 games
- Patriots
- 5-1 ATS in L6 games
- 22-5 in L27 games after gaining less than 250 yards in the previous game
- The consistency there scares me, but it's due for regression
The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the L4 between these two teams. The Jets are 0-4 ATS in the L4 matchups. Those trends have to regress at some point, I'm just saying.
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