This week’s NFL slate is a tough one to bet, with the Bucs, Rams, and Cardinals as 12.5, 16, and 17.5 favorites respectively. A portion of the remaining games involve teams dealing with injuries to starting quarterbacks and running backs. Don’t worry. Pickin Winners Locksmith is here to provide a betting guide for you.
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Before we get into the picks, I just want to update my records on the blogs. I went 2-2 again ATS, bringing my record to 4-4. With the teaser busting, my teasers are now 1-1, but still plus money.
Chiefs -4.5 vs Titans (over/under: 57.5)
In between the recording of our weekly pickem show, Pickin Six, and sitting down to write this blog the line moved from 5.5 to 4.5. This signifies to me that the early money is on the Titans and it makes sense especially if people were going off of both teams’ recent outcomes against the Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs got smacked by the Bills, while the Titans snuck out a win in front of their home fans.
Kansas City’s run defense was likely another big factor on the early money and will be a deciding factor in the game on Sunday. The Chiefs rank 27th in the league in rushing yards allowed and this will be problematic due to facing the reigning rushing champ, Derrick Henry. His rushing yards prop is set at 126 currently. Henry has recorded 3 touchdowns in each of the last two weeks and hasn’t rushed for less than 100 yards in five weeks. Ryan Tannahill projects to have his two main weapons in AJ Brown and Julio Jones and is poised to have a huge game, especially since teams have been averaging over 30 ppg against the Chiefs. I will be taking the Titans +4.5, unless the line movements continue along their trends.
Saints -4.5 vs Seahawks (over/under: 42.5)
This is one of these aforementioned games with a team without their starting quarterback. Geno Smith will be starting in place of Russell Wilson. Run defenses will be huge in this matchup involving teams inconsistent qbs. New Orleans’ rush defense ranks 2nd in rushing yards allowed, so it will be difficult for Pete Carroll and the Seahawks to lessen Smith’s by excessively utilizing the run game. On the other hand, Seattle’s run defense ranks 30th in the league. Alvin Kamara will have a FIELD DAY. I’m (unwisely) trusting Jameis Winston to play well enough to lead the Saints to cover this 4.5 point spread. Really, its #InKamaraWeTrust.
Panthers -3 vs Giants (over/under: 43)
Those who have tuned into Pickin Six will know I have a propensity to fade my Giants. I faded them in the blog last week and they got smoked. Their defense has largely underperformed to their expectations coming into the season. The Giants will also be shorthanded this Sunday. Saquon Barkley, Kenny Galladay and Kendarious Toney have remained out of practice and Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton and John Ross are also banged up. I’m sure as hell not trusting Evan Engram to be the number one receiver. This game marks Sam Darnold’s return to Metlife Stadium as an opposing starter. The Panthers struggled without star running back Christian McCaffrey this past Sunday. Despite this big McCaffrey sized hole in their offensive playbook, this is a fade-the-Giants pick so I’m taking the Panthers to cover.
Bengals vs Ravens -6.5 (over/under: 46.5)
Minor line movement suggests money on the under. Joe Mixon has been a BEAST recently and the Joe Burrow-Ja’Marr Chase connection has been fluid. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens rely on the ground game to initiate their offense and open up downfield opportunities for Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. Run defenses will be huge in this matchup, as Baltimore ranks second and Cincinnati ranks 8th in yards allowed. The Bengals secondary is sneaky good, and after trashing the Ravens secondary last week, I am having a change of heart. They locked up Herbert and the Chargers, who I think have a better offense than the Bengals. Run defenses will be dominant, so I’m sticking with my gut from the podcast and taking the under at 46.5.
Tennessee Titans Spread (+4.5 + 6.5 = +11)
New Orleans Saints Spread (4.5 - 6.5 = +2)
Carolina Panthers Spread (3 - 6.5 = +3.5)
Tampa Bay Bucs Spread (12.5 - 6.5 = 6)
Green Bay Packers Spread (7.5 - 6.5 = 1)
Arizona Cardinals Spread (17.5 - 6.5 = 11)